TOPIC: Finland and Sweden Inch Closer to NATO Membership

The long-held doctrine of Swedish and Finnish foreign policy neutrality appears to be finally drawing to a close as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  In a joint news conference between Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin and her Swedish counterpart, Magdalena Andersson, Marin announced that, "There are different perspectives to apply [for] NATO membership or not to apply and we have to analyse these very carefully... But I think our process will be quite fast, it will happen in weeks."

A Change of Perspective

For decades, the policy of non-alignment has not only been practical, but popular in both Stockholm and Helsinki. Yet as Marin herself as noted, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to  a fundamental shift in the security environment. Though the matter will come down to a debate in parliament, Marin herself seems more one-sided in her opinion on how to proceed, stating there was "no other way to have security guarantees than under NATO's deterrence and common defence." The Swedish Prime Minister has not gone quite as far, but also referred to Putin's invasion of Ukraine as the catalyst for the change in policy. Andersson told reporters "there is a before and after 24 February, the security landscape has completely changed... Given the situation, we have to think what is best for Sweden and our peace in this new situation." It is largely understood that Helsinki and Stockholm will work in tandem on the matter, having long held their neutrality on the condition that they would work together in the case of any conflict. Now, neither country will wish to be the last in to NATO. 

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin (R) and Swedish leader Magdelena Andersson (L).
Image Credit: Reuters. 

In typical Vladimir Putin style, Russia has warned against Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that "the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation", whilst noting last week that Finnish and Swedish entry in to NATO would require Russia to "rebalance the situation." What the vague threat pertains to in practical terms is not clear. 

A Failure of Russian Policy

If the war that Putin has initiated in Ukraine is truly an attempt to push back NATO, then this will come as a shocking blow to the dictator. Sweden has long held a policy  of military non-alignment, but broke this as a response of the Russian invasion, having sent weapons to Ukraine. Finland on the other hand, has been neutral following its declaration of independence from the Russian Empire on December 6th, 1917. Finland maintained this neutrality, despite a history of occupation under Tsarist Russia, as well as a Soviet invasion in 1939 and the constant pressure the USSR exuded upon Finland throughout the Cold War period. Now, that cherished neutrality is about to become un-done as a result of Putin's unjustifiable and calamitous invasion of Ukraine. For Russia, it is a geopolitical failing to expose itself to such a large (830 miles long) border with a NATO-allied Finland. However, for Helsinki and Stockholm it presents an opportunity. In peace time, the issue of NATO membership was contentious and troublesome. Now, it is popular and needed. NATO membership can grant the two nations the security it will need in the new violent European order that Vladimir Putin has created. 

Finnish soldiers on military exercises in 2016. 
Image Credit: Finnish Army.