ANALYSIS: Climate Change in the Middle East, Dust Storms and Water Wars
Climate change is a global crisis, but in the MENA region (spanning the Middle East and North Africa) the visible effects of climate change are becoming all too real. In the preceding weeks, the states along the Arabian Gulf have observed disturbing orange skies and suffered under a flurry or sand and dust storms (SDSs). Though the causes of these phenomena are difficult to isolate, the wars that have plagued the subcontinent as well as other human activities, such as water mismanagement and grand construction projects, have all contributed to the deterioration of living conditions.
A Sub-Continent on the Edge
When people think of climate change, they think of rising sea levels, submerged coastlines and increasingly in Europe, flooding. However, though these are all real and serious consequences of climate change, they are only one facet. In the MENA region, the main adverse consequences are increased dryness, storms and desertification. In recent weeks, dust storms have raged across the region (with the area already dubbed the 'dust belt'), threatening economies, public health and security. Last month, ports, schools and airports in the Gulf States (as well as in Iran and Iraq) were forced to close due to major environmental disruption. Sand and dust storms struck the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh, forcing 1,200 individuals to be hospitalised with breathing issues. Elsewhere, Kuwait twice had to suspend all flights from its international airport, with three of its maritime ports (Doha, Shuaiba and Shuaikh) also having their operations suspended. In the United Arab Emirates the Burj Khalifa was temporarily shrouded in a huge layer of dust, whilst in Iran hundreds were forced to hospital with breathing issues as schools and government offices were forced to close. Yet none of these nations were hit as hard as the already beleaguered and divided state of Iraq. Since early spring, a dust storm has struck Iraq every single week, sending thousands of Iraqis to hospital with respiratory issues, forcing health authorities to begin stockpiling supplies of oxygen.
A dust Storm towers across the Middle Eastern landscape. |
A Cruel and Unrepentant Pattern
One of the major issues with the dust storms is the propensity for the storms to worsen already depreciating ecological conditions. The dust storms by their very nature, permeate all aspects of an environment. As such, the dust covers and filtrates into lakes, oases marshlands and other water sources. This impacts farming severely, as well as the basic human need for drinking water. This increases the strain on socio-economic conditions, reducing the ability of local governments to take preventative action to combat climate change. In turn, without outside intervention, the dust storms get worse and the same cruel cycle continues, only exacerbated. Another example is the damage that dust storms do towards renewable energy sources. As a major supplier and user of hydrocarbons, but also an area bathed in year-round sunlight, it makes sense for the Middle East and North Africa to utilise solar panels to alter their energy needs and reduce carbon emissions. However, the solar panels are prone to malfunction when covered by the dust storms. This limits the ability of the region to react to changing energy needs, worsening socio-economic conditions and again, climate change. These worsening conditions come at a great cost to a region already struggling with wildly varying economic prosperity. According to figures produced by the World Bank, sand and dust storms cost the Middle East $13bn annually. For the richer OPEC members, this could be manageable. But for the war-damaged and poorer nations of Syria and Yemen, it will be catastrophic.
The Environments Impact on Inter and Intra-State Conflict
Unfortunately for the Middle East, the woes of climate change do not stop at the damage placed upon economies and public health. One of those most calamitous effects of the environmental issues has been in the the way it has been utilised or facilitated conflict by regional actors. For example, ISIS became infamous for using the dust storms to move forces and carry out attacks, utilising the reduced visibility. ISIS, despite its fall from prominence, has used the storms in recent times as a way to continue to inflict terror. In May, it carried out vicious attacks on farmers in Diyala and Kirkuk provinces, whilst in April they utilised storms again to attack and kill two Iraqi soldiers in al-Anbar province.
A map detailing declining fresh water resources across the Middle East. Image Credit: UN Food & Agricultural Organisation, The Wall Street Journal. |
Equally concerning, is the potential of environmental issues to spark conflict between nations, as water becomes more sparse throughout the Middle East, following more storms and greater rates of desertification. One example of this is the tension that has arisen from the Turkish damming of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which has effected Syria but more so Iraq. As a consequence of the Turkish damming projects as well as other extraneous factors, water resources in Iraq have depleted by 50 percent since 2021. As a result of geography, this has exposed the Sunni minority communities in particular, likely causing a rise in Islamist extremism at a time when the Iraqi state is already fragile. Iran has also taken issue with the dam-building occurring within Turkey, blaming their current drought upon the construction works. The Turkish foreign ministry responded by dismissing the claims, calling them 'unscientific.' It is only a minor diplomatic spat now, but it is an example of how water struggles can lead to a deterioration of inter-state relations. Indeed, impoverishment through lack of water on a local or regional level can lead to extremism of those suffering most and this extremism in turn could lead to violence between states in an attempt to secure water supplies.
Conclusions
The issues presented are not unique to the Middle East. Across the Sahel, increased desertification is sighted as one reason for a rise in favour for violent Islamist groups. In north and eastern Africa, tensions between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are particularly high regarding the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam. Across the Tibetan Plateau, dwindling water supplies and increased damming between the two most populous nations on earth, present a dangerous tinderbox. To compound these issues, global warming has the potential to result in permeant decreases in rainfall, making the limited water available even more valuable. Unfortunately for the world, the once abstract notion of 'water wars' or conflicts resulting from climate change are no longer constrained to dystopian novels. In fact, these conflicts could very well be coming in the near future.
Comments
Post a Comment