TOPIC: Yemen War Escalates as Hopes of Peace Unravel

In 2020, numerous reports circulated surrounding a de-escalation of the conflict in Yemen. The Saudi's were reported to be tired of the negative press and her allies unhappy with the military stalemate. Since then, diplomatic talks have been slow, but now a sharp escalation in the conflict seeks to role back any minor diplomatic progress that had been made. 

Houthi's Launch New Attacks and Riyadh Retaliates

On Monday, the Houthi rebels who oppose the Saudi led coalition, launched missile strikes and drone attacks against the UAE, a key Saudi ally and a member of the Saudi coalition. The strikes hit an industrial location near Abu Dhabi, sparking fires in fuel trucks that killed three foreign workers. Missiles also hit an area close to the international airport, marking the first serious attacks on the UAE mainland. Previously missiles have been launched towards the UAE, but never has the UAE admitted they have hit nor have they caused casualties in the past. This escalation in violence is seen as an attempt by the Houthi's to persuade the UAE to halt their support for militias loyal to Yemen's Saudi backed and internationally recognised government. The Amalega Brigades and other associated militias have had noticeable recent successes against the Houthi's, pushing them out of key areas in the South, as well as escalating pushes to dominate the oil-rich Marib governorate in the north. 

Yet the attack has only drawn the ire of the UAE's Saudi allies, with Saudi air strikes targeting Houthi's across Yemen, killing dozens if not hundreds of people. The UAE in the past had played a far more active role in Yemen that it has recently done. The UAE was a strong supporter of the Saudi coalition which intervened in 2015 to restore the government driven out by the Houthi's. Nonetheless, the military setbacks experienced by the coalition persuaded the UAE to withdraw its own troops in 2019. The Gulf State continued to arm and train militias to battle against the Houthi's, but this was a serious draw-down in the UAE's active involvement. 

UAE Response

The Saudi's have responded, but the UAE is yet to show its hand. In recent years, the UAE has been trying to pursue a diplomatic path, attempting to warm its frosty relationships with Qatar, Iran and Turkey. Now, the path of diplomacy may be put to one side as the UAE looks to step up support for its allies on the ground. Security is paramount to the ruling regime and attack on its soil, no matter its economic or military impact, is a serious afront. Equally, the UAE may seek to purchase more sophisticated anti-missile defence systems, which Israel, a newfound ally, would be more than willing to provide. What is for sure, is that the Yemen conflict is now far more likely to escalate once more than reach a diplomatic conclusion.  

Government-Houthi fighting in the Marib Governorate (Reuters).




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