ANALYSIS: Finland and Sweden to Join NATO? The Changing Balance of Power in the Baltic

In 1949, the Nordic states of Denmark, Norway and Iceland joined NATO. Fifty years later, on the other side of the Baltic Sea, the states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia also joined the alliance. With the addition of Germany and Poland, the Baltic Sea effectively became one that was NATO orientated, but not NATO controlled. Russia still had a presence despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, but more so, the nations with the largest Baltic coasts, Finland and Sweden, remained officially neutral. This meant that Russia, as she revitalised herself following the collapse of the Soviet Union, was not threatened on her northern border. Since 1991 this has remained the case, but recent Russian actions in Ukraine now threaten to change the balance of power in the Baltic. 

Russian Aggression as the Primary Cause

In many ways, both Finland and Sweden are both nations already tightly integrated into the western world from which NATO revolves. Both are members of the EU, with a history of collaboration with NATO. They have collaborated on issues regarding the environment and social issues, as well as joint military exercises. Indeed, this collaboration has not been limited to fellow EU members, but with other key members of the western alliance, most notably Norway, the United States and the United Kingdom. However, despite this closeness, Sweden and Finland are officially neutral countries, with the alliance under no obligation to protect Stockholm or Helsinki, should they come under attack from a hostile power. 

Until recently, Stockholm and Helsinki had little cause for concern. Yet the aggressive advances of Russia, following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the subsequent war in the Donbass has re-ignited concerns. Indeed, the irony of Russia's actions are that its objectives are to contain the alliance, preventing NATO encroaching on ex-Soviet states and limiting the spread of the Russian military. But the way they have conducted themselves, most recently with an ultimatum that demanded that Ukraine should never join NATO, has got Sweden and Finland thinking. The most recent polls suggest that support for joining NATO is on the rise, particularly in Sweden, with the population split nearly 50/50 on the matter. NATO are also said to be keen, with rumours that the two nations could be within the alliance in a matter of days, should they so wish. 

The Implications of Sweden and Finland Joining NATO

For NATO, the inclusion of Sweden and Finland in the alliance is a win-win. Both possess strategically placed geography in regard to both their terrain and their territorial waters, whilst granting NATO better access to the currently isolated Baltic states. Both still maintain conscription within their nations, with sizeable military budgets still intact. Separately,  Sweden is a large producer of highly sophisticated weapons and the Finnish air force is considered particularly battle-ready.

For the Russian's, the implications of Sweden and Finland joining NATO are clear and devastating. The Baltic would effectively transform into a NATO controlled lake, threatening Russian trade and energy that move through the area. The heavily militarised Russian exclave of Kaliningrad would also be more exposed than before, but most importantly for Moscow, a huge new border with NATO would be formed along the Russo-Finnish boundary. This would spread Russian forces away from its heartland, ultimately creating the opposite effect to what Putin desires. 

Russia certainly has the military capacity to roll over Ukraine and halt NATO expansion in eastern Europe temporarily. But by doing so, Moscow could just as easily push Finland and Sweden into NATO's outstretched arms. 

(Image Source: https://archive.transatlanticrelations.org/event/finland-sweden-nato-trump-change-everything/)