TOPIC: Myanmar Edges Towards Outright Civil War

It has been another bad week for the beleaguered South East Asian nation of Myanmar, as violence continues to escalate. The ruling Myanmar military junta is accused of killing 13 people from a village in central Myanmar, whose burnt bodies were discovered yesterday. The attacks are believed to be in retaliation against two bomb attacks against a military convoy, near the city of Monywa, close to a controversial copper mine of which the junta have a stake. It is reported that soldiers entered nearby villages, rounding up and executing six men and five teenagers. Their hands were tied and they were shot before their bodies were set alight. These events come in the aftermath of former Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi being sentenced to four years in prison (later reduced to two) on counts of inciting dissent and breaking COVID rules. 

What is Going on in Myanmar?

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has experienced mass protests following the military seizing control of the state in February, after which they declared a year-long state of emergency. The junta claimed there has been widespread fraud during the election of the previous year, which re-elected Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD). These allegations were largely dismissed by the Myanmar public as well as the international community, with the election commission also dismissing these claims. 

The Resulting Conflict

The coup resulted in mass civil disobedience and violence across a nation that was already prone to internal conflict, particularly prior to Myanmar's first democratically elected head of state in 2015. Anti-coup protesters armed themselves with Molotov cocktails and slingshots, attacking the military. In response, the military opened fire, cracking down brutally on any form of dissent. This led to hundreds and possibly thousands of protestors travelling to the border regions of Myanmar where many insurgent groups still exist. Here, protestors began to receive military training. The civilian government-in-exile began to call for the formation of a 'federal armed force' to combat the military in March 2021, that would be composed of the many ethnic insurgent groups across the vast nation. 

Indeed, the coup caused the resurgence of insurgence groups across the country, with militias such as the Kachin Independence Army and Chinland Defence Force resuming or upping their attacks on the military. In April, seven signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement announced their joining of the National Unity Government, before subsequently resuming armed hostilities towards the military.  By May, the National Unity Government announced the formation of an armed wing, the People's Defence Force (PDF), on its quest to form a Federal Union Army. The PDF has subsequently engaged the military junta a number of times, inflicting hundreds of casualties. As of December 2021, armed resistance is in full swing and is more likely to intensify rather than fade out, as the junta hoped. Civilians still regularly take to the street in protest against junta rule, despite increasing government brutality. Former insurgent groups also continue to re-arm, with the Communist Party of Burma the most recent example, having announced the formation of a new armed wing, 'The People's Liberation Army.'

Since the February coup, the junta has killed at least 1,303 protestors and arrested 10,000 more. The real numbers are likely to be much higher. Yet they have failed to stifle the flame of indignation, that continues to grow. Neither side currently has the military strength to overwhelm the other, but with opposition to the junta only increasing, Myanmar is well on its way to a full blown civil-war. If it is not already there. 

(Image Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56235405)