TOPIC: The Geopolitical Implications of Ukraine joining NATO

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden spoke with the Ukrainian premier Volodymyr Zelenskyy following talks earlier that week with Russian President, Vladimir Putin. The talks discussed the mass build of 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's border, hinting at the possibility of a Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic. During the two-hour discussion, President Putin demanded that NATO guarantee that Ukraine would be denied membership to NATO, in reference to a 2008 commitment that stated the country would one day become a member of the alliance. In response, the NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected the demand, stating, 'NATO's relationship with Ukraine is going to be decided by the 30 NATO allies and Ukraine, no one else.' It is a principled response, but bearing in mind Russian geopolitical imperatives, is it a foolhardy one as well?

The Geopolitical Importance of Ukraine

Stoltenberg is not alone in his principled stance. Many think that Putin's own force should be met with fire. But I would argue this is a severe miscalculation of the importance Putin attributes to Ukraine. As detailed in several previous articles (linked below), Ukraine has a multitude of important factors that innately attract Russian interest, these can be broken down in to both human and physical geography. It is the physical geography that is most important in the case of Russian opposition to NATO.

Firstly, Ukraine joining NATO greatly widens the border with which Russia shares with NATO states. Currently the only NATO members that share a border with mainland Russia are the tiny Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia, as well as a tiny artic border with Norway. This widens the battlespace, a possible problem for the defence of the Russian heartland based out of Moscow. Equally in NATO hands, Eastern Ukraine threatens the Russian Caucuses. The Ukraine-Kazahk gap is a (relatively) vulnerable corridor which if exploited by rapid armoured divisions, could cut off Russian access to the Black Sea and the Caucuses, devastating Russian oil supplies and effectively landlocking the state. As such, with these articles in mind, Putin is not prone to bluff. In an imagined offensive by the west wherein sufficient time is allowed to build up its forces, Ukraine is a sword resting upon Russian arteries. 

Why NATO Should Not Accept Ukraine as a Member Just Yet

Thus, with all this in mind, it begs the question, why not absorb Ukraine in to NATO, present the Russians with a coup d'état and display the sword to the artery as a way to compel Putin? The simple answer is that Russia has the capability and the willpower to act before such a coup could be completed. It is estimated that the Russian military could overrun Ukraine in a matter of weeks, well before NATO support could arrive. The Baltics would meet a similar fate and even Poland could be routed rapidly. A military exercise conducted by Poland earlier this year named 'Winter-20' simulated a Russian invasion and the results were devastating. Most Polish forces were encircled across the Vistula, with Russian armoured cores reaching Warsaw in five days, initiating the total collapse of resistance. So the most simple reason to deny Ukrainian entrance to NATO? NATO is not capable of defending it, nor will it be in the near future, particularly with the American 'pivot to Asia' and the diversion of resources to the Asia-Pacific. A failure as well to act in Ukraine's defence if it did join, would undermine Article 5 as well as the whole notion of the alliance.

But this does not mean that Ukraine has to be abandoned to Russian invasion. Indeed, the prospect of invasion greatly diminishes if Putin could be assured that Ukraine will not be joining NATO. It could be seen as bowing to Russian pressure, or it could be seen as a realistic assessment of the geopolitics currently in play. And not accepting Ukrainian membership now, does not mean that this can't be reassessed in the future. Perhaps it is not a case of 'if' Ukraine joins NATO, but more so 'when'. Putin cannot last forever and his political system is so head heavy, a power struggle upon his death could leave Russia unprepared and unready to challenge the west militarily, granting the space for Ukraine to join NATO peacefully. Either way, the solution lies in patience and calm, rather than American brigades entering Kiev. As the only certainty in that scenario is the world emerging to the precipice of a conflict on a global scale, with the potential for devastation not seen since 1945. 

Credit: REUTERS

Other articles of note:

- FEATURE (Part Three): Ukraine: Attempting to Escape Russia's Grasp (A Geopolitical Analysis) https://mundusreport.blogspot.com/2021/11/feature-part-three-ukraine-attempting.html 

- FEATURE (Part Two): Ukraine: Attempting to Escape Russia's Grasp (A Geopolitical Analysis) https://mundusreport.blogspot.com/2021/11/feature-part-two-ukraine-attempting-to.html 

- FEATURE (Part One): Ukraine: Attempting to Escape Russia's Grasp (A Geopolitical Analysis) https://mundusreport.blogspot.com/2021/11/feature-part-one-ukraine-attempting-to.html