TOPIC: Mali Coup Leaders Cling on as Wagner Mercenaries Swoop in

Mali, a west African nation imbued in a bloody battle with Islamists and other internal opposition groups, is now turning to the Wagner Group, a cohort of elite Russian mercenaries to prop-up the ruling military junta. 

Over the previous decade, Mali has had to contend with many warring factions, including the northern Tuareg population as well as agricultural groups such as the Dogon and Bambara peoples. The most severe threat to Mali came in the form of Islamist groups backed by ISIL and Al-Qaeda, whose operations culminated in the capture of the historical city of Timbuktu in 2012. Mali, a former French colony, called upon its former overlord to assist in the recapture of the north. In the urban areas, this was completed by Spring of 2013, with French President Macron arriving in Timbuktu to celebrate the victory. 

Unfortunately for Mali, these victories did not result in stability for the nation. Islamists continued to range across the region known as the Sahel, where they continue a guerrilla conflict.  This has necessitated a continued French commitment to the region. Yet now the continued French presence in the region is coming under question, following a military coup in Mali during August 2020. 

Coup Leaders Seek Alternative Solutions

Coup leaders deposed the civilian government, forming a National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP) that ruled in its stead. The exclusion of civilian involvement was furthered in 2021, with coup leaders failing to meet multiple deadlines to initiate a transition back to civilian control. These failings have resulted in an antagonistic relationship between Mali and its democratic benefactors, including the United States, the African Union and particularly France. Paris has gone so far as to suggest that continued military co-operation would be untenable if the coup leaders remain in charge. For the foreseeable future, this remains probable.  

For the coup leaders this presents a dilemma. Without the support of France, the coup leaders would be vulnerable to the various other opposition groups, particularly the northern Islamists. However, they are unwilling to give up the newfound control they have acquired. This has led them to the door of the Wagner Group. Elite Russian mercenaries, with ties to the Russian state and no love for democracy, the Wagner Group offer a solution to the military coup leaders impasse. If France were to abandon Mali, the Wagner Group could plug the gap in the French militaries line, whilst the Wagner Group would have no problems with working for the military government. Ultimately, it may not be the Wagner Groups military prowess that sways Mali, but its moral ambiguity. 

(Image source: Florent Vergnes AFP, https://www.theafricareport.com/127421/mali-russia-bamako-to-sign-contract-with-wagner-group/)