Topic: Ethiopia on the Brink

Ethiopia, the second largest nation by population in Africa, stands on the brink of collapse. Tigrayan rebels are reported to be advancing on the capital, Addis Ababa, after recently capturing the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha. Recent attempts by the Ethiopian federal government to push back these advances have been met with failure. This comes despite Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, declaring in November 2020, that the conflict was ‘over’. Since then, Tigrayan forces have rebounded and advanced into the neighbouring region of Amhara, where Dessie and Kombolcha are situated.  In response, the Ethiopian National Defence Forces or ENDF, have mobilised young men from across the north of the country. Yet these lightly armed and disparate forces have taken heavy casualties when confronted with the highly trained and motivated Tigrayan Defence Force or TDF. The Tigrayan conflict began as a result of Abiy Ahmed’s attempts to alter the country’s ethnic-federal political model. Now, fighting has spread across the nation and in to neighbouring countries, sparking a widespread humanitarian crisis.

Analysis

The issue that the incumbent Prime Minister faces are multifaceted and deep-rooted. Ethiopia is an inherently divided nation, despite being one of two nations on the African continent to defy European imperialism (with the exemption of the short period of Italian occupation). Of the 117 million people that define themselves as Ethiopians, there are 80 different ethnic groups, that often find themselves struggling for power. In addition to this, the country is split between Christianity and Islam, with even the majority Christian population split between followers of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and those of various Protestant denominations. 

Unfortunately for Abiy Ahmed, it is not only demographics that stand in the way of a united Ethiopian nation. Even the countries geography inherently opposes centralisation. Landlocked, Ethiopia possesses vast deserts and tropical forests, but it is the mountains and rivers that are the geopolitical features of most note. These rivers, despite their potential as a source of energy, are not widely seen as commercially navigable. They split the country, dividing the population groups and making grand infrastructure projects that could unite the nation, expensive and problematic. This problem is only exemplified in regard to the mountains, but with an added twist. The mountains of Ethiopia divide its people, but also act as serious barriers to uniting the people by force. The Tigrayans in particular have a history of utilising these vast ranges as a backbone to their political independence. The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) founded in 1975, waged a successful guerrilla conflict from the mountains against the Derg regime, which it overthrew in 1991. Consequently, from 1991-2018, it was the Tigrayans who held power in Ethiopia.

The Future of Ethiopia

Once more history threatens to repeat itself in Ethiopia. The Tigrayans used the mountainous terrain as the backdrop to their rise to power in 1991. In 2018, it was once more their refuge. Now having survived the government offensive on their homeland, they once more threaten to advance upon the Ethiopian capital. There is a chance that the TDF do not attack Addis Ababa - it strategically makes perhaps more sense to continue to occupy the routes that connect Ethiopia to Djibouti. Indeed, this is essentially Ethiopia's lifeline, with trade and aid mostly arriving through this route. This would grant Tigrayan forces a particularly strong hand in negotiations, whatever there end goal may be. Or they may take the more direct approach. Tigrayan forces may once more enter Addis Ababa as conquerors. Either way, the multi-ethnic fabric of Ethiopia now appears to be tearing at the seams. 

A topographical map illustrating the geographical diversity of Ethiopia. Note the Tigray region in the very north. (Source: https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/ethiopia-political-map.html)